Dahlia Scheindlin is an Israeli pollster and commentator.
A recent headline in Haaretz Newspaper would have confirmed many Israelis’ worst fears: Three-quarters of Palestinians Support Hamas’ Attack on October 7, says new poll. But one further word points to a much more nuanced analysis. The word ‘Why?’
The raw data (of a very small sample) by the Arab World Research and Development Group (AWRAD) cannot be easily explained away. ‘Nearly 60 percent of respondents very much ‘supported the military operation carried out by the Palestinian resistance led by Hamas on October 7. Another 16 percent expressed moderate support.’ Haaretz writer Dahlia Scheindlin commented, ‘That’s three-quarters in total who supported the indefensible.’[1]
And I want to make clear, I do not support the indefensible. But I do want to understand what these results mean. The Palestinians I know or have encountered are warm, friendly, hospitable people, who wish no harm to anyone. For many years many Palestinians, including the Palestinian Christian community, have advocated for non-violent change, but they feel that their plight has been ignored by the world community.
Why does ‘support’ for Hamas seem so strong?
Scheindlin points out that when asked for Hamas’ reason for the operation 35% said ‘to stop violations of Al-Aqsa.’ But 29% said ‘to free Palestine’ and 21% said to ‘break the siege on Gaza’. Half the respondents ‘chose a version of freedom.’
Palestinians are not free. They do not live in a Democracy. The Palestinian Authority is seen as weak and corrupt. People are afraid of Hamas and the Israeli military behave with near impunity. Violent extremist Zionists have been increasingly emboldened by support from the right-wing of the Israeli government and their violent and murderous actions go unchecked. People censor themselves all the time. Recently, many people in the West Bank and East Jerusalem have had their phones and search histories looked at at checkpoints and some have been arrested. People are reluctant to speak on camera about their current situation in case there are repercussions.
Scheindlin quotes Huda Abuarquob, a long term civil society and peace activist, whose explanation for high support is that it is ‘a first reaction to an act that puts Gazans back on the map.’
I don’t know when she said this, but the irony is that systematic bombardment by Israeli forces is currently wiping Gaza off the map.
I heard from an Israeli friend who was appalled that a Palestinian woman with whom she has been friends for many years described feeling her heart lift when she saw the ruptures cut in the fence around Gaza on 7th October. There was a sudden gulf between them. She hadn’t understood how thoroughly trapped her friend had felt all her life.
According to Scheindlin, another key factor in stated Palestinian support for Hamas’ invasion of Israel is that Palestinians feel existentially alone. A second survey by The Institute for Social and Economic Progress showed that 56% of those polled felt they had no important strategic ally. Nor are there obvious home-grown leaders. One participant in a focus group said, ‘I feel that the Palestinian population is orphaned, there is no-one to lead them.’
Scheindlin comments, ‘In this lonely reality, some Palestinians I know were initially spirited by images of people breaking out of Gaza, even if they later found the full extent of the violence revolting.’
According to Scheindlin, while privately people are repulsed by the war crimes committed by Hamas, there is a “rally-round-the-flag” effect tinged with desperation.
And there is also fear. Many Palestinians believe Hamas will not be defeated, and will in fact grow stronger, and people are afraid to speak out against them. The West Bank survey found that most peoples’ emotional state was ‘helplessness’.
Quoting Masha Gessen, Scheindlin concludes that in a state of war people are afraid to say the wrong thing both because of the police state and because of the psychic cost of breaking rank with a ‘mobilised, anxiety-saturated society’. They have been consuming media and social media that confirms their hopes and biases, and so they don’t have full information.
For me, Scheindlin’s conclusions are very important: when interpreting opinion polls like these ‘ we must consider the conceptual world of respondents who live in a society that has never been free and is invariably at war.’
Most of the time, for more than 75 years, that war has been going on away from the headlines and off the radar. Most Israelis had learned to trust the security provided by the military and did not give much thought to the situation of Palestinians in Gaza, or the West Bank or in Israel itself. As long as things were contained, there was ‘peace’.
Despite increasingly forlorn calls for hostage release and almost 25,000 deaths in Gaza, Netanyahu says that the war will not be over until Hamas is obliterated. Eventually, as in every war, there will be a cessation of hostilities. But how will that translate beyond peace keeping to peace making?
It is hard to imagine. The deep fears and woundedness on all sides will need to be faced and addressed. New leadership which respects the human rights of all will need to emerge. World consensus to restore the rule of international humanitarian law and investigate and punish all war crimes will need to be implemented. And above all, the vast majority of people, both Israeli and Palestinian, who just want to live in peace, will need to find a place of mutual support and healing. They will need to build trust and enjoy freedoms long curtailed and denied. As one of my friends says often, ‘It’ll take a miracle.’
[1] Three Quarters of Palestinians Support Hamas’ Attack on October 7, says New Poll. Why? Dahlia Scheindlin Haaretz November 22, 2023
Stepping out of the boat... 